Last Sunday once again showed that when Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are dialed in, no one can possibly stop them: And while there are a few reasons why this could be an obvious let-down spot for the Chiefs, given the lackluster start to the season for the Raiders, and this game being sandwiched between marquee matchups for Kansas City, that seems like an oversimplification of the handicapping process - and could be the reason we are getting such a soft price on Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs. No Bet PLAYER PROPS Bet Patrick Mahomes o2.5 Passing TDs (+145 BetMGM) Wait and evaluate how the offenses are performing early on in their scripted plays. PFF Greenline sees value on the under, but the play-by-play simulation sees a different outcome: With these two approaches split, this is another spot where a no-bet seems prudent. Also, if they do score early and the Raiders counter, projecting the Chiefs to continue and the Raiders to slow looks like the safest prognostication from that initial outcome and will be my preferred approach if betting the spread. If Kansas City is moving the football early and ends up with a stalled drive near the goal line or a turnover, it would make for the perfect time to buy the Chiefs. Live-betting potential: Whether there is a letdown is impossible to predict pregame, but it could make a base case for betting on either side of the action in-game. Kansas City is being labeled in the let-down spot, sandwiched between their two toughest games this year. Let-down spot for Kansas City?: Predicting what Chiefs team will show up is the obvious reasoning for which side of the spread you land on. The move out to -7.5 dried up any value that remained on the Chiefs and looks like an efficient number based on both PFF Greenline and the play-by-play simulation. The spread continues to move in the Chiefs' direction: After the preseason number locked at -6 and the lookahead of -6.5, we opened this week at -7 and are locked into -7.5 for kickoff. Let’s dive into the AFC West showdown on Monday Night football between the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs. Our prime-time previews pull all the key modeling numbers and simulated outcomes from PFF’s betting tools, including PFF NFL Greenlineand the player props tool, which use top-down machine learning models backed by PFF’s exclusive data to derive value when compared to the betting market. #Best virtual city games free#
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Mahomes is 11-11 on plus-price offerings of o2.5 pass TDs since 2020, for +1.67 units won.Bet Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs (+132 FanDuel): Against PFF's 15th-best ‘D,' Mahomes will have his way Monday night.
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